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Poll Results

Poll 561: I've tossed a coin before writing this poll question. Heads or tails?

Total votes: 2784

Heads: 1824 (65.5%)  
Tails: 960 (34.5%)

It was tails. Specifically, I tossed a one-dollar coin, and it landed on the side showing the kangaroos, rather than the Queen's head.

I'm astonished at the asymmetry in the answers. I expected the ratios to be much closer to 50/50. In fact, a simple application of the binomial theorem shows that the probability of 1824 (or more) people out of 2784 choosing heads is about 10-61, if you assume that people effectively choose randomly between heads or tails with a 50% chance of each option. This essentially proves* that the probabilities of poll respondents picking heads or tails are not equal - there is some systematic bias towards heads. It's not too hard to guess what the bias might be - probably a significant number of people just picked the first item on the list of options, having no particularly good reason to pick anything else.

* At the 99.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% confidence level, for the statistically pedantic.


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